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The Z Files: The Problem With Early Projedictions

Todd Zola

Todd has been writing about fantasy baseball since 1997. He won NL Tout Wars and Mixed LABR in 2016 as well as a multi-time league winner in the National Fantasy Baseball Championship. Todd is now setting his sights even higher: The Rotowire Staff League. Lord Zola, as he's known in the industry, won the 2013 FSWA Fantasy Baseball Article of the Year award and was named the 2017 FSWA Fantasy Baseball Writer of the Year.

I blame the National Fantasy Baseball Championship (NFBC). There was a time I launched projections in February. Now, I need to have the initial set ready by Nov. 1 to get out in front of the NFBC Draft Championship competition, a 15-team, 50-round, draft-and-hold format kicking off in November.

The earlier rollout presents a conundrum, because, quite frankly, there isnít enough time in a month to do a deep dive on over a thousand players. Okay, no one dissects that many players, but looking in depth at the top 250 or so isnít plausible in October in conjunction with early roster and playing time estimates. I try to incorporate as many objective factors as I can into my system, but a combination of emerging data and change in philosophy has added more subjectivity to my process than past seasons.

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